TRAJECTORY · WHERE THIS ENDS UP
RESOLVED · HAAS F1 2025–26
A probabilistic view of where this career is most likely to land, derived from cohort-matching against historical F2/F3 drivers at the same stage.
Model computed March 2024 prior to Bearman's Haas contract. Now in his second F1 season (2026): 30 starts, 62 points, P4 career-best at Mexico City 2025. Preserved to show model calibration against a confirmed outcome.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION · ULTIMATE CAREER OUTCOME
CLOSEST COHORT ANALOGS
Drivers whose CV signature and trajectory most resembled this driver's at the same age.
COHORT MATCHES SCORED BY DRIVING STYLE SIMILARITY MODEL
WHAT THE MODEL WEIGHTS
The factors driving the F1 probability upward, and what could pull it down.
FDA membership + strong F3 → F2 transition
+18% F1 LIKELIHOOD
CV signature matches multiple F1-bound analogs
+14%
F1 substitute appearance (Jeddah 2024)
+11%
F2 championship not won (P4 2024)
−7% vs title-winning analogs
Grid spot availability (chassis competition)
−4%
FEATURE WEIGHTS DERIVED FROM MULTI-SEASON STYLE ANALYSIS
ERAS
DRIVING SIGNATURE
The shape of their driving, measured corner by corner against the rest of the grid.
SIGNATURE PENDING
There is no public telemetry for F2. This signature will come from the onboard vision pipeline.
SETUP & STYLE
SCOUTING REPORT
How they set up the car, and the style that emerged from it.
THE REPORT
Bearman's defining characteristic across his junior career is braking commitment: he carries speed to a corner entry point that most contemporaries will not match, then uses progressive pedal release through the first half of the apex to maintain front-axle load and rotation. In the spec Dallara F2, where tyre temperature is everything, this technique gives him a natural advantage at corners where others coast in — the tyres arrive at the apex already loaded and heat-stable rather than cooling under a conservative approach.
His F4 Italy championship in 2021 and F3 runner-up in 2022 established a pattern that persisted into F2: fast on fresh rubber, occasionally losing ground in the tyre-preservation phase that defines the second stint. His F2 Prema campaign in 2024 was consistent rather than dominant — third in the championship with 5 wins — but the mechanical picture was clear: entry technique is elite, tyre sensitivity in the degradation phase is still developing, characteristic of F3 graduates who haven't yet calibrated the compound-temperature management that F2 race pace requires.
The context that defines his profile is the Saudi Arabia 2024 F1 substitute appearance: scoring P7 with no free practice in a Ferrari SF-24, ahead of established F1 drivers, after being told hours before the session. For most drivers, the cognitive load alone would suppress pace by a significant margin. Bearman's composure reflects a mental architecture that has been consistently visible since he arrived in junior formulae — a driver who processes unfamiliar technical environments without the anxiety that compresses performance.
SETUP PREFERENCE
NEUTRAL · SLIGHT US TOLERANCE
MID-RANGE · ADAPTS TO CIRCUIT
HIGH-DF · QUALI-ORIENTED
EXCELLED AT
STRUGGLED WITH
MORE BELOW · TRACKS · LAPS